Three NHS Direct pilot sites were launched in March 1998 and
the service now covers all of England. While not the first telephone health
service in the world, it promised something more than triage of emergency calls.
Initially set up to provide clinical advice, health information, and referral to
other NHS services via the telephone, it is now set to become the hub of out of
hours care. In January the National Audit Office, an independent body that
scrutinises public spending on behalf of parliament, published its report on NHS
Direct in England.
NHS Direct is presented in a positive light, but not all is
rosy. In addition to difficulty with meeting call handling targets there has
been no visible effect on demand for NHS services overall. The hoped for
reduction in demand for other services might be achieved by the proposed
integration of NHS Direct with existing out of hours general practice
co-operatives and ambulance services. Where such integration has taken place
demand for general practice consultation has fallen, especially for telephone
consultation.
Despite shortcomings, customer satisfaction with NHS Direct
is high – that is, among those who use it. Sadly, the evidence indicates that
they are the same people who use existing health services. It is underused by
older people, ethnic minorities, and other disadvantaged groups. Rather than
reach people who are currently failed by the health system NHS Direct may have
discovered previously unexpressed demand among the worried and well middle
classes.
What of NHS Direct online? The Internet version of the
telephone service makes only a brief appearance in the report, but its use is
clearly limited to those with access to the Internet and money to pay for it.
When callers reach a nurse the advice they get may vary –
usually on the side of caution. This is predictable, but has inevitable
consequences. The predictive value of a diagnostic test depends on the
prevalence of the condition being tested for. The rarity of serious disease
among callers to NHS Direct must mean that its computer based decision support
system, however good, has a low predictive value for serious illness. For every
caller with a serious condition detected by NHS Direct, many more with self
limiting conditions will be directed into the health system. Consistently to err
on the side of safety might seem logical, but the effect of doing so is to fill
a health system with people who do not need to be there.
Finally is it worth the money? The report suggests that half
of the £90m annual cost of NHS Direct has been offset by encouraging more
appropriate use of NHS services. Cost savings are calculated according to other
health service contacts avoided. These are determined on the basis of callers’
stated future actions rather than on actual data. The savings are therefore
speculative and in any case a maximum estimate.
Is £45m, the theoretical additional cost of NHS Direct,
worth it for a system that eventually might work as a co-ordinator of access to
health care? It seems unlikely that NHS Direct will do anything to address
health inequality, and it may even serve to widen existing differences. Ask
yourself. If you had £45m a year to spend on improving health, empowering the
socially disadvantaged, and reducing health inequality what would you spend it
on?
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